AGP Executive Report

Morocco Politics & Elections: Morocco’s ruling coalition is fracturing ahead of the Sept. 10 campaign start, with accusations, camp-switching and a leaked recording highlighting tensions as the Sept. 23 parliamentary vote approaches; Interior Ministry says 702 candidate lists from 27 parties were submitted on day one, with 15.8m registered voters. Ceuta Migration & Spain-Morocco Fallout: Spain is facing fresh waves of mass protests over the Ceuta border crisis after July’s surge of more than 70,000 migrants from Morocco; meanwhile, Spanish police leadership says a CENIF report does not attribute “planning or execution” to Moroccan forces, even as controversy continues around the report’s conclusions. Labor & Offshoring: Morocco’s call-center and offshoring union federation (UMT) urges a tripartite deal to revise the offshoring offer by 2030, warning AI and automation could threaten jobs without retraining and job-protection commitments. Healthcare Costs: Morocco’s nurses’ union rejects new university fees and restrictions for health workers pursuing higher studies, calling it a commercialization of free education. Aviation & Tourism Demand: Rabat-Sale airport logged nearly 1.45m passengers in the first seven months of 2026 (+16.1%); Morocco’s airports overall handled 22.28m passengers (+8.8%). Banking Outlook: Analysts cut 2026 growth expectations for listed banks amid weaker market activity and heavier digital spending, with rebound expected from 2027. Industrial & Trade Links: Morocco’s ambassador to Argentina pushed for deeper trade ties at the Santa Fe Business Forum, highlighting logistics and agro-industrial complementarities.

Fertilizer & Energy Security: Morocco’s OCP is set to supply Bangladesh with 70,000MT of phosphate-based fertilizer (DAP and TSP) under a G2G deal, alongside four LNG cargoes approved to keep domestic agriculture and energy demand covered. Corporate Performance: OCP Group reported MAD 48.37bn revenue in H1 2026, down from H1 2025, citing tougher markets and supply disruptions, while keeping investment elevated. Aviation & Defense Procurement: CAE won a $42.1m US Air Force contract for Royal Moroccan Air Force F-16 Block 72 training systems and logistics support, with delivery work spanning Texas and Sidi Slimane until 2029. Digital Risk: Morocco is seeing a rise in WhatsApp scams via account takeovers, where fraudsters impersonate trusted contacts to push urgent money transfers. Politics & Jobs Agenda: PAM unveiled a MAD 350bn election program aiming for at least 1m net jobs by 2031, with targets across services, industry, rural youth, and sports-linked activity. Trade & Mobility: Morocco’s tourism momentum continues, with revenue up and passenger traffic hitting new highs, while Casablanca airport logged a record 24-hour figure. Ports & Shipping: A major Hapag-Lloyd ultra-large container ship is scheduled to dock in London Gateway after calling at Tangier, highlighting Morocco’s role in global logistics.

PAM Election Platform: Morocco’s Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) unveiled its Sept. 23, 2026 legislative program with five policy pacts and 20 commitments, targeting purchasing power, youth jobs, public services, strategic security and economic growth, including proposals like free electricity bills up to MAD 100/month, income-tax restructuring, and a minimum pension of MAD 3,000. Tourism Earnings: Morocco’s tourism receipts hit MAD 79.01bn through July (+13.4%), with visitor arrivals up to 9.4m in H1 (+6%), supporting a travel-services surplus of MAD 59.08bn (+15.7%). Automotive Exports: Morocco’s auto exports rose 14.9% to MAD 107.14bn by end-July, led by construction (+19.9%) and wiring (+13.8%), while overall exports climbed 8.4% to MAD 299.34bn. Ports & Maritime: Marsa Maroc revenue increased 13% to MAD 3.214bn in H1 2026 as volumes rose 3%, and Morocco is buying two Dutch unmanned surface vessels to strengthen maritime security. Aerospace/Defense Tech: Harmattan AI set up an engineering center in Rabat and plans drone mass production after recruiting 50 engineers, tied to a June partnership with the Royal Armed Forces. Mining Deal: Aya Gold & Silver agreed to acquire a 139 km² copper-silver exploration portfolio near its Zgounder mine, expanding its Moroccan footprint. Ceuta Spillover (Spain-Morocco): Spain approved €309m in additional aid for Ceuta amid the late-July migrant crisis, while Spanish prosecutors report 23 sexual assaults since the influx.

Tourism Momentum: Morocco logged 9.4m tourist arrivals in H1 2026, up 6% year-on-year, with growing GCC interest pushing the country beyond traditional European demand. Energy Security & Industry: Trade unions renewed calls to reopen the Saudi-owned Samir refinery near Mohammedia, arguing Morocco’s dependence on costly refined fuel imports is worsening after parliament rejected an acquisition bid. Trade & Commodities: A WHO snapshot shows Côte d’Ivoire leading Africa’s tobacco leaf imports in 2024, with Morocco and Tunisia among the mid-tier importers. Ceuta Crisis Spillover: Spanish prosecutors reported 23 sexual assaults in Ceuta since the late-July migrant influx, including nine against children, as unrest and aid blockages continue. Tech & Investment: Ibtikar Fund made a seed investment in Palestine-based Churn Solution, an AI retention platform now with paying customers including in Morocco. Mining & Exploration: Talisman Metals’ Fougnar exploration licences were renewed by Morocco’s Energy and Mines ministry, with drilling planned for Q4. AI & Startups: Aya Gold & Silver agreed to acquire a 139 km² copper-silver permit portfolio in Morocco, aiming to expand exploration near its Zgounder mine. Digital Economy: Apple applied Morocco’s 20% VAT to App Store proceeds and prices, aligning local app economics with tax rules. Business & Growth: World Bank coverage highlights Morocco’s push into African industrial value chains and deeper integration with Europe.

Ceuta Crisis & Migration Politics: Spain’s PM Pedro Sánchez says there’s no evidence Morocco helped trigger the July surge into Ceuta, blaming Russia and Israel-linked disinformation instead—while Italy and Spain keep tightening border checks in a tit-for-tat response. Energy Prices: Morocco’s diesel pump price rises slightly from Sept. 1 (gasoline unchanged) despite softer global oil. Industrial Integration: A World Bank report highlights Morocco’s growing role in African industrial value chains, citing stronger participation in processed chemicals and manufacturing depth in sectors like automotive and aerospace components. Agri-Exports & Agribusiness: Morocco’s avocado sector gets a boost with MAC 2026 in Tangier on Sept. 30, aiming to tackle resilience and technical bottlenecks after a sharp export drop in 2025/26. Women & Governance: ADFM calls for an investigation into alleged “payments for endorsements” ahead of Morocco’s elections, warning it could block women’s access to seats. Business & Trade Links: USIP Alliance leads a trade mission promoting Morocco–Portugal–US agriculture ties, including port visits to Casablanca and Tanger Med.

EU-Morocco Trade: Germany says it has “no reservations” about the new EU-Morocco trade framework that keeps tariff preferences for goods from Western Sahara, with origin labeling and monitoring built in. Ceuta Migration & Disinformation: Spain’s PM Pedro Sánchez rejects claims of Moroccan involvement in the late-July Ceuta crossings, but says EU research points to Russian and Israeli networks spreading misleading migration claims online. Defense Modernization: L3Harris completed inspections on the first Royal Moroccan Air Force C-130 under a modernization deal, with further avionics upgrades planned for the next aircraft. Waste-to-Energy: BUTEC won an EPC contract for a Casablanca waste-to-energy plant under a long concession, targeting 1.5m tonnes of waste annually and 126MWe of baseload power. Digital VAT Update: Apple adjusted Morocco’s app proceeds to reflect the new 20% VAT on digital services, with pricing changes scheduled for mid-September. Care Economy: Morocco launched an Arab world first national care economy strategy to expand care services, create jobs, and strengthen social protection across the life cycle. Elections Watch: A coalition plans about 1,700 independent observers for Morocco’s Sept. 23 parliamentary vote, focusing on campaign fairness and legal compliance.

Aerospace & Defense: L3Harris says it has started modernizing Morocco’s C-130 fleet, with a full digital cockpit upgrade planned for later aircraft—momentum that will be on display at MAS 2026 in Marrakech (Oct 7-10), where major defense firms are set to land. Industrial Expansion: Masterflex will launch an aerospace components plant near Casablanca in Q4 2026, investing about 50m dirhams and creating ~77 jobs. Trade & EU Access: Germany backs the EU-Morocco trade framework that keeps preferential access for products from the Moroccan Sahara, citing compatibility with the 2024 EU court ruling. Security & Customs: Morocco seized 75.13 kg of cocaine at Guerguerat, hidden in a truck fuel tank; the driver was detained. Food Security & Investment: Morocco and the US deepen their alliance via an OCP–CHS phosphate fertilizer venture in Louisiana (~$450m, 1m+ tons/year for the US). Digital Economy: Apple starts applying Morocco’s 20% VAT to App Store developer proceeds and adjusts prices from Sept 14. Agriculture: Zagora date growers forecast a 10-15% harvest increase for 2026-27 as mite and disease pressure eases. Regional Policy: Morocco calls for prevention to sit at the heart of African peace and security efforts at an AU summit in Luanda.

Waste-to-Energy Deal: Casablanca’s waste-to-energy project has moved forward after a major BUTEC EPC contract award, targeting ~1.5m tonnes of non-recyclable waste annually and ~126 MWe of baseload power for Greater Casablanca. EU Border Support: Spain has asked the EU and Frontex for extra help in Ceuta, where thousands of migrants remain after the July crossings from Morocco, as authorities seek faster screening and processing. Energy Trade Shock: Russia’s refinery disruptions from Ukrainian drone attacks have pushed Moscow to import record gasoline, with India supplying nearly 1m barrels over two months and Turkey and Morocco also showing up as key suppliers. Sahara Diplomacy: Mauritania says it will keep “positive neutrality” while continuing contacts with Polisario, including talks that reportedly focused on detainees and requests for a permanent presence that were not approved. Tourism & Investment: Egyptian billionaire Samih Sawiris plans a €200m, five-year restart of the unfinished Mogador resort near Essaouira, aiming to build a new El Gouna-style destination. Trade & Jobs: Morocco’s apparel exports to the EU dipped in Jan–May 2026 to €1.05bn (-9% y/y) but held market share gains and higher unit prices. AI Entrepreneurship: A Moroccan entrepreneur highlights how China’s AI boom and business support helped him grow and find new opportunities.

Morocco–EU Trade: Morocco’s apparel exports to the EU slipped in Jan–May 2026, down 9% to €1.05bn, though it gained market share and posted higher unit prices (+11.8% to €25.9/kg). Agro-Exports: Morocco strengthened its lead in the UK fresh raspberries market, shipping about 18,400 tonnes worth £132.7m from Jul 2025–Jun 2026. Fertiliser Investment: OCP North America and US co-op CHS plan a $450m phosphate fertiliser plant in Louisiana, aiming for 1m+ tonnes annually and creating hundreds of jobs. Aviation & Defence Industry: L3Harris says it has completed inspections on the first Royal Moroccan Air Force C-130 under a modernization programme, with more aircraft to follow. Digital & Public Services: Morocco and India agreed to set up a joint commission on languages and digital technologies to integrate Darija and Amazigh into Morocco’s online administration platform. Finance & Credit Markets: An IFC/EOS-backed bad-debt sales framework in Morocco is being clarified: it is not debt forgiveness, and buyers would pursue collections. Regional Security Policy: Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita urged AU members to put prevention at the heart of Africa’s peace and security approach. Migration Pressure in Ceuta: Spain’s Ceuta crisis continues to dominate politics and funding talks, with new calls for border works and renewed debate over the EU’s response. Football Business: Wydad signed striker Soufiane Hitli on a two-year deal, adding depth for the next season.

Morocco–India Trade & AI: Morocco and India agreed to set up a joint commission on languages and digital technologies, aiming to integrate Darija and Amazigh into online public services (Idarati), with a focus on large and small language models. They also target doubling bilateral trade over the next five years, with recent figures putting Morocco–India trade at about $4.4bn and both sides eyeing $2.6bn in untapped exports. EU Market Access: Morocco’s textile and ready-made clothing exports to the EU topped €1.05bn in the first five months of 2026, with higher average prices per kg and Morocco ranking among the bloc’s top suppliers. Security & Cyber: Morocco’s DGSN and DGST denied any hack after a group claimed a leak of data tied to about 70,000 security agents, saying the material came from older insurance and social/health databases. Judiciary Impact: Moroccan lawyers extended their strike against judicial reforms, leaving many litigants without representation until parliament repeals the law. Sports Business: Morocco’s Botola Pro “Inwi” winner will receive MAD 10m starting 2026–27, raising the stakes for the league title race.

Ceuta Migration Shock: Spain and the EU are scrambling after the late-July surge, with Spain asking the European Commission for Frontex/Europol support for Ceuta triage and processing, while the EU, TikTok and Meta agree on fact-checking cooperation to curb viral misinformation that allegedly fueled dangerous crossings. Security & Data Leak Claims: Morocco’s police and domestic intelligence (DGSN/DGST) deny any hack after a group posted spreadsheets claiming data on ~70,000 security-linked people, saying the material is old records from insurance/social-health databases. Social Security Watch: Economist Zakaria Garti flags a sharp CNSS technical surplus drop in 2025 (surplus down ~40% year-on-year) as benefit growth outpaced contributions and reserve returns fell. Aviation & Travel Demand: Morocco’s airports handled 22.28M passengers in the first seven months of 2026 (+8.77%), led by Casablanca and strong European traffic. Fertilizer & Food Inputs: OCP returns to the US market after Trump suspended countervailing duties, and Morocco-linked CHS/OCP plans a Louisiana phosphate fertilizer plant targeting 1M+ tons annually by late 2028. Finance for Distressed Debt: IFC and EOS plan a €60M facility to buy non-performing loans from Moroccan banks, aiming to free bank capital while not wiping borrowers’ debts. Trade With India: Morocco-India bilateral trade hit $4.4B in 2026, with both sides targeting $2.6B more via higher-value sectors. Business Climate Signals: Morocco’s education ministry orders classes to start Sept. 7 on time and bars late-enrolling students from being charged registration fees.

Ceuta Border Crisis: Protests in Spain’s North African enclave of Ceuta escalated into clashes with police as locals blocked Red Cross food deliveries and set belongings on fire, a month after tens of thousands of migrants crossed from Morocco; police detained 12 Moroccan suspects after an alleged stone attack on a military vehicle. EU Funding for Security Works: Spain’s Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska asked the EU for €35.6m to extend El Tarajal and Benzú border breakwaters and add structural measures, citing “effective” Morocco cooperation and urging an end to violence. Morocco Cyber Denial: Morocco’s security agencies rejected claims of a cyber intrusion into their databases, saying leaked material came from older data held by insurance and health organizations. Energy Trade Link: Morocco backed the Sila Atlantik renewable power plan to export electricity to Germany via submarine cables, targeting up to 15 GW of generation. Trade Talks: Indonesia flagged export opportunities to Morocco (palm oil and frozen shrimp among them) as both sides push to complete an Indonesia-Morocco trade agreement by 2027. Business & Finance in Casablanca: XS.com will sponsor The Trading Show in Casablanca, positioning itself as a global broker for North Africa’s trading community.

Morocco-Spain Trade & Border Pressure: Ceuta’s migrant crisis keeps boiling over: clashes between residents, police and migrants escalated after protests near Trampolín/Benítez beaches, with tear gas used and a military vehicle “ambushed” by about 70 migrants; 12 Moroccan nationals were arrested. Public Finance & Child Protection: Spain agreed €25m emergency funding for Ceuta to support care for migrant children, as local child-protection systems face strain. Digital Security: Morocco’s DGSN–DGST denied any cyberattack or database breach after personal data circulated online, saying it was old insurer/health/social-coverage data and warning against doctored documents. Tax & Digital Economy: Apple updated App Store tax handling in Morocco, introducing 20% VAT for developer proceeds and adjusting app/IAP pricing from Sept. 14. Trade Talks: Morocco and India agreed to double bilateral trade over five years and set up a joint working group to study a preferential trade deal, with focus areas including fertilizers, pharma, mining and digital transformation. Energy & Investment: Predator Oil & Gas said Morocco drilling prep is advancing, with MOU-6 well pad work completed and a start date expected within two weeks. Business Promotion: Morocco made its first official Gamescom appearance in Cologne via AMDIE to showcase the video game ecosystem and attract publishers and investors.

Morocco–EU Trade & Industry: Italy’s ambassador says trade with Morocco hit about €4.75bn in 2025, with Italian exports up 8.1% to nearly €3bn and a wider surplus—evidence of deeper production links despite political noise. Industrialisation Benchmark: The AfDB’s Africa Industrialisation Index puts Morocco top in Africa for the first time, overtaking South Africa after 15 years, signaling momentum in manufacturing, exports, infrastructure and investment. Phosphate & Fertiliser Push: OCP plans its first new US phosphate plant since 1984, while Morocco also positions itself as a critical minerals hub and prepares more phosphate shipments to the US. Finance & Markets: Casablanca hosts the third Trading Show Company (Sept 5–6), bringing global brokerage tech and regulators to Morocco’s trading ecosystem. Digital Mobility & Services: A global car-rental forecast points to rapid growth through 2035, reflecting the shift toward tech-enabled mobility. Labour & Climate Pressure: Morocco’s farmers face heat, water stress and disease risks, even as recent rainfall helps—raising the stakes for locally adapted know-how. Football & Talent (Morocco-linked): Manchester City sign Morocco midfielder Ayoub Bouaddi from Lille in a record €100m deal; meanwhile, Hassania Agadir adds Algerian goalkeeper Gaya Merbah on a free transfer. Politics & Youth Trust: Morocco heads to the polls Sept 23 amid a deep trust deficit among young voters after recent protest history. Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita holds a farewell with Palestinian ambassador Jamal Al-Shobaki, reaffirming Morocco’s support for the Palestinian cause.

FIFA Governance Fallout: UEFA is set to formally drop its threat to boycott FIFA competitions after assurances that Gianni Infantino’s failed World Cup sell-off plan won’t be revived, clearing European teams to prepare for the Sept. 5 Under-20 Women’s World Cup in Poland. Morocco Reputation & Soft Power: Morocco climbed to 27th globally in the 2026 RepCore Nations reputation ranking, topping Africa and the Arab world, with gains tied to technology perception, public resource management and sports achievements. Trade & Connectivity: Morocco and Spain’s economic ties keep deepening, with bilateral trade topping €22bn in 2025 and Spanish exports to Morocco rising 3.5% in H1 2026; automotive supply chains are a key driver. Business & Investment: Brokerslink expanded its board to 10 directors after a private placement, adding Morocco’s Youness Rhallam and signaling continued growth across 140+ countries. Aviation & Logistics: Morocco participated for the first time in an official capacity at Gamescom in Cologne, aiming to plug 11 studios into global value chains and accelerate international expansion. Regional Context: Spain’s Foreign Ministry says it speaks daily with Morocco on Ceuta and Melilla, reiterating both are Spanish cities and EU territory.

Manchester City Transfer Boom: Morocco midfielder Ayyoub Bouaddi has signed a five-year deal with Man City from Lille in a reported €100m move, seen as a long-term Rodri successor. ASEAN-Africa Connectivity: Morocco is pitching itself as a bridge to ASEAN, stressing “connectivity” beyond ports to include digital links, finance, energy corridors and people-to-people ties. Critical Minerals Push: Morocco’s titanium and antimony projects are gaining traction, with a pilot processing plant reported for the Titan Beach titanium oxide project. Battery Materials Expansion: CNGR’s Morocco base in Jorf Lasfar (El Jadida) hit a 1,000-ton milestone for nickel-based battery materials in June 2026. UK-Morocco Procurement Talks: The UK is seeking input on a new legally binding procurement access deal that could open a ~£33bn market for British firms. Cybersecurity & Ceuta Leak Fallout: Spain is investigating a Jabaroot-linked leak of about 70,000 Moroccan security personnel records, raising questions on what media can publish. Sports Governance Watch: Nigeria’s WAFCON fact-finding report points to camp management, communication and administration weaknesses after the Falcons’ Morocco exit. Spain Asylum Overhaul: Spain approved a draft bill to speed asylum processing and returns amid the Ceuta migration crisis.